Although not many football fans outside of the Emerald State are going to turn on their televisions and actually watch the Washington vs. Washington State game this Saturday, many football handicappers certainly will. This is the final week of college football before the bowl season begins.
What it means is that finding games on which to bet, where one team isn’t a double-digit favorite over another, might be hard to do. Can Washington win their third game in a row and prove that they are indeed turning into a viable Pac 10 team in the NCAAF odds betting sportsbook?
My gut tells me that Washington will cover the NCAAF odds in the sportsbook in this game. I’m not alone. 72% of football handicappers are backing the Huskies to cover the spread in this one.
That’s all well and good but my gut also tells me that there is a much better wager than betting against the spread in this game. The Washington Huskies average roughly 21 points per game. The Washington State Cougars average roughly 19 points per game. So, uh, what’s up with that 54 ½ total?
In fact, the strongest trends in this game have nothing to do with the spread. Here are some total trends for the Washington vs. Washington State battle: the under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two, the under is 5 and 1 in the Cougar’s last 6 conference games, the under is 7 and 0 in the Huskies last 7 games versus a team with a losing record, and the under is 5 and 1 in the Cougar’s last 6 games overall.
The under has been a successful wager in both of these teams’ games recently. The under has hit in the Cougars’ last 3 games including a 0 to 42 Washington State loss versus Arizona State, a 13 to 20 Washington State loss versus Cal and a 31 to 14 Washington State victory over Oregon State. For Washington, the under has been a successful bet in 3 out of the Huskies’ last 4 games. Washington lost to Stanford 0 to 41. Washington beat UCLA 24 to 7 and Washington beat Cal 16 to 13.
I suppose that’s all the evidence that most football handicappers need in order to bet under the total in this game. The NCAAF odds aren’t bad, either, I do like Washington to cover the spread in this one, but I really like this game to go under that ridiculously huge total of 54 ½ points.
I’m going to bet under the total when Washington faces off against Washington State on Dec. 4th.
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